Who WinsThe World Cup?
A stacked ensemble model rates every team, scores every match, then plays out the rest of the tournament 10,000 times a day — tested first on the 2018 & 2022 World Cups before being trusted with 2026.
Who Takes The Trophy?
Every remaining team's chance of winning it all, refreshed daily. Right now these numbers come from the global market; our own simulator's numbers join this board once the knockout bracket is locked in -- see the note below.
Check Your Country
Every one of the 48 teams: still alive or eliminated, and how their odds have moved.
The Race, Charted
One point per team, per day. Watch the favorites rise and fall as real results land -- and see who the data backed once the champion is crowned.
Our AI vs The World
For every upcoming match: our prediction, right next to what the rest of the world expects.
Latest Results
Every final score below feeds straight into tomorrow's ratings.
Don't Trust Us. Check.
Every prediction is committed to a public, SHA-timestamped git history BEFORE kickoff, hash-chained so it can't be quietly edited, and graded against the market once the match ends. The receipts are one click away.
| Kickoff | Match | Our call | Market call | Recorded at |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 14 | France v Spain0–2 | Spain 40% ✓ | France 40% ✗ | 89a1898 |
| Jul 11 | Norway v England1–2 | England 51% ✓ | England 51% ✓ | 8d40c02 |
| Jul 10 | Spain v Belgium2–1 | Spain 60% ✓ | Spain 59% ✓ | 5f487f0 |
| Jul 9 | France v Morocco2–0 | France 50% ✓ | France 60% ✓ | 028bc2e |
| Jul 7 | Switzerland v Colombia0–0 | Colombia 43% ✗ | Draw 63% ✓ | 028bc2e |
| Jul 7 | Argentina v Egypt3–2 | Argentina 73% ✓ | Argentina 69% ✓ | 3c70218 |
| Jul 7 | United States v Belgium1–4 | Belgium 60% ✓ | United States 37% ✗ | 3c70218 |
| Jul 6 | Portugal v Spain0–1 | Spain 50% ✓ | Spain 50% ✓ | dd49a99 |
| Jul 6 | Mexico v England2–3 | England 42% ✓ | England 39% ✓ | 34a19b8 |
| Jul 5 | Brazil v Norway1–2 | Brazil 55% ✗ | Brazil 53% ✗ | 34a19b8 |
| Jul 4 | Paraguay v France0–1 | France 70% ✓ | France 81% ✓ | 34a19b8 |
| Jul 4 | Canada v Morocco0–3 | Morocco 51% ✓ | Morocco 51% ✓ | 34a19b8 |
| Jul 4 | Colombia v Ghana1–0 | Colombia 79% ✓ | Colombia 83% ✓ | 34a19b8 |
Every entry's provenance.github_url shows the prediction inside dashboard/data/upcoming_matches.json at a commit GitHub timestamped BEFORE kickoff -- open it, compare the probabilities.
The commit history of this ledger file and data/predictions/predictions_log.csv is an append-only daily trail written by the public GitHub Actions runs (Actions tab) -- rewriting it would break every fork, clone, and the Actions log.
Recompute the hash chain locally: python scripts/build_proof_ledger.py --verify (each entry_hash = sha256(prev_hash + canonical entry JSON); genesis = sha256('wc26-proof-ledger-v1')).
Tested On Real History
Before trusting it with 2026, we replayed the 2018 and 2022 World Cups from the group stage onward. The eventual champion's predicted chances climbed round after round in both -- and beat a simple world-ranking guess on average.
How It Works
Rate Every Team
Every team carries a strength score that rises and falls with each real result. Recent form counts for more than ancient history.
Predict Every Match
Three different predictors — a machine-learning model, a ratings model, and a world-ranking rule — each give a view, blended into one probability per match.
Play It Out 10,000 Times
The remaining tournament is simulated ten thousand times a day. Count how often each nation lifts the trophy — that's their chance of winning it all.
What Powers This Site
Every tool used to build what you're looking at -- from the models to the pixels.