NFL 2026 Season
Preseason placeholder estimates. The NFL model pipeline goes live with Week 1 on September 10, 2026 — until then, every number on this page is an illustrative, market-informed prior, not live model output. It is labeled this way on purpose: this platform never presents fabricated numbers as real predictions.
Preseason title probability leaderboard
Super Bowl LXI title probabilities — preseason estimates, refreshed when the live pipeline starts.
Our Model vs Vegas — opening matchups
Illustrative Week 1 matchups. The two columns will diverge once the live model runs — that divergence, graded after each game, is the whole point of this platform.
How the NFL model will work
Same two-layer architecture as the World Cup system: Layer 1 scores each game from team strength trajectories (an Elo-style rating updated weekly, rolling offensive/defensive form, rest days, home advantage) blended in a stacked ensemble; Layer 2 simulates the remaining season and playoff bracket thousands of times to produce title probabilities. Every prediction is logged to the tamper-evident public ledger before kickoff and graded against the closing Vegas line after each game — identical to the FIFA proof system.